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Divisive World War 3

dDave

Well-Known Member
V.I.P.
With the ever growing bond between Russia, Iran, and China, I can't help but think that World War 3 is in the near future. The East HATES the West and the West very much reciprocates that feeling.

I think we've going to see the formation of a new Axis powers and that eventually something is going to snap. A war like this will end civilization as we know it. I'm also not so sure that a new Allied forces would be able to win a war this time.

Here's how I see it playing out.

Allied Powers
-United States of America
-Canada
-Japan
-South Korea
-Great Britain
-France
-Spain
-Italy
-Germany
-Israel
-Mexico
-Australia
-Brazil
-Argentina
-Chile
-Peru
-Philippines

Axis Powers
-Russia
-China
-North Korea
-Iran
-India
-Cuba
-Iraq
-Libya
-Syria
-Saudi Arabia
-Yemen
-Turkey
-Pakistan
-Afghanistan
-Venezuela
-Malaysia
-Indonesia
-Vietnam
-Thailand

For the most part, the Axis powers would come from Asia (including the Middle East) in my view. That's where most of the true anti-Western culture is really thriving.

I'm unsure about where Ukraine would fall in all of this. On one hand, their politics do not seem to indicate that they'd be aligned with the likes of Western Europe and the US but at the same time I seriously doubt they'd want to be allied with Russia at this point. I'm also unsure about Egypt, not sure where they would fall.

Obviously, this is just speculation on my part, we can only guess how the sides would turn out if World War III were to happen at all. We can feel pretty certain about some of them though.

Russia will fully support Iran if they are punished at the G7 conference next week. (They are currently de facto, suspended but not expelled) That will, in a way, let Iran off the leash. I don't think it's too far out of the picture to think that Iran will have nuclear weapons soon. Problem is, there is exactly 0 chance that Israel will wait to be attacked, they will bomb first to defend themselves and the US would need to stand behind them. Iran has stated clear intentions to blow Israel off the face of the earth so I can understand why Israel feels this way. The world is going up in flames all around them.

Bottom line, if anybody blows up a nuclear weapon anywhere then many countries will declare war without hesitation.

War between Israel and Iran could be the spark that sets off the war. (heck, this Crimean Peninsula problem could be the thing we look back into history and see as the spark) That would instantly increase tensions with Russia, China, and Iran that war would be very possible.

Don't even get me started with the tensions between the Japanese and the Chinese, they could hardly hate one another more. The US is already pledged to side with Japan if anything does happen over there. South Korea and Japan aren't too fond of one another either, I see them being allies out of necessity though.

I think this would be the most destructive war of all time and we would see at least several percentage points of worldwide population wiped out.

Thoughts on this?
 
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sunrise

aka ginger warlock
V.I.P.
I am unsure of exactly where allies would lie and how they would form. I am also unsure of what would spark off the war. One thing I do wonder is if China would side with Great Britain? They have had a decent reputation with them and even after 1997 they relationship was never a bad one.

The thing for me is to wonder just what a world war would entail, the reason I ask this is if we look at the history of WW I & II there were called world wars but they were not really fought around the world. They were very centralised, is there the possibility that places would stop firing long range missiles and go into the ground in the way American and Britain did with Afghanistan and Iraq? Where would the UN come into this? What kind of a treaty, law and rule would need to come into place to allow this war to occur?

I am really unsure.
 

Hilander

Free Spirit
Staff member
V.I.P.
Since Turkey is a member of NATO I think they would be on our side and I also think Saudi Arabia would also. I don't think Turkey is too crazy about Russia either. They are mad about Russia moving into Crimea and threatening violence against the Tartars. Turkey actually threatened to close the Strait of Bosporous to Russian ships. That would hurt the Russians tremendously.

Turkey Threatens to Close Bosphorus for Russian Ships - Novinite.com - Sofia News Agency

I hope not but this could very well start WWIII. I think it will be more of a cold war though. If Russia tried to use their military to force Turkey into letting them use the Strait which flows right through Istanbul NATO would get involved.
 

MenInTights

not a plastic bag
Ezekiel 38-38 says many of those nations will come up against Israel and She will super-naturally destroy them. I don't understand it but I believe when WW3 starts, it will end quickly. And honestly, I think it could happen soon.

There is an interesting book out about the a series of 4 blood moons called a tetrad. The old prophets said that this will be a sign. This has happened a few times in history and it has always been significant for Israel. This happened in 1492 the Jews were expelled from Spain. It happened again in 1948 during the rebirth of the nation Israel and again in 1967 during the 6 day war when Israel recaptured Jerusalem. The tetrad starts next month.

I don't know if next month will start the Ezekiel prophecies. I do believe that something significant will happen to Israel over the next 2 years because it was prophesied and the prophecy has been proven. I don't know where that leaves the West, if we escape what is coming or not.

We are truly living in amazing times.
 

Sim

Registered Member
Very interesting -- and frightening -- topic!

For certain reasons that are probably not rational, and which I will thatfore not explain in detail now, I'm personally inclined to think a war between NATO and Russia is inevitable and can't help but taking it as certain, although I often pray I am wrong. However, I couldn't tell if it happens this year or in 30 years, after an extended period of a new Cold War.

But irrational assumptions aside, I'll try to share my thoughts based on how I perceive the situation, based on facts and rational considerations:

Of course analogies are never 100% appropriate, but I see eery parallels between Russia today and Germany between the World Wars.

After Germany had lost WW1 in 1918, it had to cease many territories and was reduced to its core. It also lost its status as world power and was reduced to a regional force. The Allies refused to accept Germany as an equal and instead burdened it with heavy reparations, although the old monarchist government had been toppled and a democratic system was in power. The ego of many Germans could not swallow this loss, and they also felt mistreated by the Allies. On top of that, many of the old monarchist people were still in leading positions in many places, such as the military, the administration and parts of the economy, people who were still dreaming of a dominant German global power. When after 14 years, the new democratic system had still not paid out for Germany, these old anti-democratic elites were looking for ways of establishing a nationalistic government, and the people contributed to that too by massively voting for anti-democratic parties. In 1933 eventually, Hitler became Chancellor, ended democracy, started a policy of open opposition against the West, started persecuting opposition at home, and rearmed Germany.

When the USSR collapsed in 1991, this former world power was reduced to its Russian core too and had to cease many territories. Many Russians felt humiliated by being reduced to a regional power. President Yeltsin attempted to install a Western kind of democratic system, supported by American advisors, but it didn't really work. And the pro-Western course didn't pay off for Russia either: Instead of accepting Russia as equal, the US and NATO countries broke their 1991 promise not to expand NATO and EU, even some former USSR countries joined the West. Then, the West even toppled Russia's traditional friend, the Serbian government, by bombing that country and installing a pro-Western government. Many Russians felt betrayed. And here too, many old people from communist times were still in leading positions in military and administration. In 2000, finally, they were fed up with the pro-Western course of Yeltsin and installed former KGB chief Putin as his successor. Putin has since then taken many steps to roll back democracy again, step by step brought the media back under state control so that there is hardly any independent media left, opposition people were silenced, opposition parties not allowed to run in elections and a huge anti-Western propaganda campaign was started. Also, Putin massively rearmed Russia, using the money Russia had gained by effectively selling its oil and gas via state companies.

In 1938, Germany annexed Austria. In 2008, Russia annexed parts of Georgia, after the government there had attempted to join the West. And in both cases, the West did nothing substantial.

Later in 1938, Hitler felt that democratic, pro-Western Czechoslovakia, basically an Allied outpost right in Germany's backyard, was an insult against Germany: About 25% of the population there was ethnically German, and the country had been a core part of Austria before. With the pretext of "protecting the rights of the German minority", Hitler annexed parts of Czechoslovakia.

The situation is very similar today in Ukraine: Ukraine too is considered a traditionally Russian region by many Russians, since the country had always been part of the Russian tsardom and later the USSR. Around 20% of the population of Ukraine are ethnic Russians and many more at least pro-Russian. When the West/NATO helped the pro-Western opposition to topple the pro-Russian government, with the goal of getting Ukraine away from Russia into EU and NATO, many in Russia felt "enough is enough" and felt justified taking actions against what they perceived as yet another attempt of the West to humiliate and encircle Russia.

In his address to the nation, Putin has declared a couple of days ago that Russia once again demands to be respected as a world power and that Russia will no longer allow the West to screw around with it. He also claimed it is his declared goal to once again unite all the ethnic Russians within the Russian state.

So much for the analogy, but now the question is: Is Putin just as crazy and megalomaniac as Hitler? It was a mistake by the West to appease Hitler in 1938, because Hitler was an ideologue with the goal of world conquest, and despite his claims, he was never satisfied just by getting back former German territories, his ambitions went way beyond that.

So appeasement has a bad name. Undeservedly, because most of the times, it works very well. Most enemies are *not* like Hitler and can be appeased. Most of the time, even ugly dictators are satisfied with less than world conquest. So what's the goal of Putin and the Russian elite today?


If it came to a direct confrontation today, I'd say it would be NATO and other US allies on one side, and Russia with its closest allies/satellites on the other -- a handful of former USSR states such as Belarus, Kasachstan, Usbekistan. But also Iran and the Syrian regime are pro-Russian (out of necessity, because they're rabidly anti-Western and take any strong anti-Western ally they can get).

So if there is a new Cold War, it's very likely the Middle East would become a battlefield for a massive proxy-war -- much like you described in your OP. The West supporting Israel would do everything it can to push Russia out of the ME, while Russia will do everything it can to defend and expand its position there.

And Russian will probably act aggressively to get even more territories in its backyard, especially former Soviet states, under its umbrella. Will they invade even the rest of Ukraine, or at least arm pro-Russian militias there, engaging in a civil war? We might well see a horrible civil war in Ukraine, which actually is a proxy-war, where both the West and Russia fuel the conflict by supporting and arming their respective Ukrainian factions, without directly getting involved with their own troops.

Then, there are the Baltic states of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. All three of them used to be former USSR states until 1991, and each of them has a significant Russian minority of between 20% and 30% of the population. But these states are members of NATO and EU. Will Russia attempt to get their hands on these states too, in order to "protect the Russian minority"? Of course they couldn't get directly involved, since that would mean a genuine war with NATO. But maybe Russia will attempt to destabilize these countries by supporting pro-Russian movements there?

I doubt China would form an open alliance with Russia. Unless the Western economy collapses, the West is a way too important trade partner for China. And China has historically never been expansionist, even anti-expansionist, and they think long-term -- why risk anything with military adventures now, when time is working for China anyway and they'd become a global superpower in 50 years all by itself, if they just wait? So my guess is, China stays neutral, tries to take profit from a Western/Russia conflict by playing out both sides against each other, making sure they get the best deals. Only if there was a real war between NATO and Russia and one side is about losing, they'd probably join the victor and make sure they get a piece of the cake too.

Now Europe. What would a new Cold War including massive economic sanctions mean for the EU and for Russia? Many EU countries, such as Germany, are massively dependent on Russian gas and oil imports: 40% of all gas and oil consumed in Germany stems from Russia. If Russia suddenly stopped the exports, that would probably push the German and thus EU economy into an extreme crisis, on top of the very unstable situation we already have since 2008, maybe even totally crash it. Russia has us at the balls, economically.

On the other side, there are many who say it would be suicide for Russia to stop the exports to the EU. Just like the EU depends on the gas imports, Russia depends on the money they get from the EU for that stuff. Without EU money due to this trade, Russia would be bankrupt in a rather short time.

But I'm no expert and don't know how bad the impact of an end of this trade would really be, for either side, or if one side could swallow it much easier than the other. Maybe one side can afford ending this trade after all?

Military capacities: You often hear the Russian military is allegedly outdated and at the brink of collapse, but I doubt that's really the case. After all, Russia is still one of the world's largest weapon exporters, leading developer on many fields of military technology and has massively rearmed over the past couple of years.

On the other side, the European military is basically non-existent, because Europe too has massively disarmed after 1991, naively assuming there is no threat anymore. And the remaining rest of the European armies was transformed into an intervention force to be employed abroad rather than defending the own country. Germany has only 1 or 2 tank divisions left; for comparison: Russia has around 40.

I'm no expert, but my guess is that the only countries in Europe that still have *some* significant capacities for self-defense are France and Britain, all others are even no match for the Russian army, even if the Russian army is outdated. We depend on Americans fighting and dying for us if things really get tough. But are Americans really willing to fight and die for Europeans as much as they were 30 or 60 years ago? More important: Do the Russians think it's worth the risk testing that out?

With all these considerations and questions in mind, maybe we can outline a few potential scenarios:

1. Business as usual.
The West protests a little, but unofficially accepts the Russian annexation of Crimea. Russia has no further ambitions in Ukraine and the West no longer attempts to expand into former Russian territories. West and Russia keep up their trade and after a while, things go "back to usual".

2. Successful appeasement and a "new world order".
Both sides eventually realize that the costs for a confrontation are too high, neither side really wants a Cold War or even open conflict, and the West too accepts they cannot ignore Russia any longer. NATO and Russia sign a pact (either officially, or inofficially, for the West to save face) that clearly defines their respective spheres of interest, and both sides promise not to cross that line in the future.

3. A new Cold War
Both sides continue their confrontation course, but don't cross the line to direct conflict. The West uses all its power to isolate Russia politically and economically on the world stage, with mixed success. The trade between Russia and the EU is stopped, which is extremely painful and costy for both sides, yet both sides manage to keep up the embargo. NATO massively rearms and fortifies its eastern border. Many military conflicts outside of Europe are fueled by both sides, as they're fighting proxy-wars there over influence.

4. Escalation and World War 3
Russia feels strong enough to take the risk of attacking the West, as long as the West has not yet rearmed and prepared itself for such a war and this window of opportunity is still open. Russia speculates Europe is an easy target and America will not support its European allies with full force. Russia further successfully destabilizes the EU by cutting off the oil and gas supplies, pushing the EU into an economic crash: The already extremely fragile EU economy, unstable because of banking and debt crisis, totally collapses, while Russia's authoritarian government declares war law and war economy, minimizing the effects of a loss of Western money. Soon, there is turmoil and chaos in many EU countries which escalate even into a kind of civil war. Maybe some factions are supported by Russia and act as pro-Russian militias. Maybe Russia claims it will send "peace troops" into the EU to "restore peace" and "protect the people".

All that said, I am really no expert and am lacking crucial information to make an educated guess which scenario is likely, or if one of them is even totally impossible. It's just my ideas on the topic based on the knowledge I have.


What do you think?
 

MenInTights

not a plastic bag
Excellent Sim! Thanks!

I've been reading a little about this from Russia's side of things and as much as I hate to say it, they make some good points. We (the West) expanded NATO to their back door which we said we wouldn't do. We have meddled in Ukraine's affairs against Russia. There were tapes that were released a during the Olympics that showed us plotting an overthrow of the Ukraine president. Our horrible news in America reported the tapes as "US dipolmats said F** the EU", ignoring all of the rest of the recordings that were actually important!

Americans, image this. Russia wins the Cold War and they announce that they are our friends and will act accordingly. Then they install Russian bases in Canada and Mexico. When Canada elects a pro-American President, the Russians hatch a plot to topple him and install a pro-Russian president. What would you think?

This is a very complex situation and we have to be careful not to fall into Russia bad - West good mentality. There are neoCon Americans that are salivating for war with Russia that are making this situation dangerous. Of course I'm not taking the side of Russia. I realize that Putin and Communism are evil. But I really think decisions that we've made (the West) over the past 20 years have helped us get here today. In many ways, we kicked Russia when they were down, well now they are back up.
 
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Hilander

Free Spirit
Staff member
V.I.P.
We will place sanctions on each other but if Russia will stay out of the Ukraine and doesn't start killing Tartars like they did during and after WWII I think this will be a short lived cold war. At least that is what I'm hoping for. The way things stand now Obama has no intentions of starting a war with Russia.

If Russia does start killing Tartars its going to make Turkey mad then they are going to close the strait and that is where the US and EU may get dragged into a war with Russia. We will just have to see what happens next.


During World War II, the entire Crimean Tatar population in Crimea fell victim to Soviet policies. Although a great number of Crimean Tatar men served in the Red Army and took part in the partisan movement in Crimea during the war, the existence of the Tatar Legion in the Nazi army and the collaboration of Crimean Tatar religious and political leaders with Hitler during the German occupation of Crimea provided the Soviets with a pretext for accusing the whole Crimean Tatar population of being Nazi collaborators. Modern researchers also point to the fact that a further reason was the geopolitical position[which?] of Crimea where Crimean Tatars were perceived as a threat.[29] This belief is based in part on an analogy with numerous other cases of deportations of non-Russians from boundary territories, as well as the fact that other non-Russian populations, such as Greeks, Armenians and Bulgarians were also removed from Crimea.[citation needed]
All Crimean Tatars were deported en masse, in a form of collective punishment, on 18 May 1944 as "special settlers" to Uzbek Soviet Socialist Republic and other distant parts of the Soviet Union.[30] The decree "On Crimean Tatars" describes the resettlement as a very humane procedure. The reality described by the victims in their memoirs was different. 46.3% of the resettled population died of diseases and malnutrition.[citation needed] This event is called Sürgün in the Crimean Tatar language. Many of them were re-located to toil as indentured workers in the Soviet GULAG system.[31]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Muslims#cite_note-31
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Muslims
 

dDave

Well-Known Member
V.I.P.
We will place sanctions on each other but if Russia will stay out of the Ukraine and doesn't start killing Tartars like they did during and after WWII I think this will be a short lived cold war. At least that is what I'm hoping for. The way things stand now Obama has no intentions of starting a war with Russia.
There are quite a few more factors than whether or not Russia starts killing Tatars.

Russia is a huge power in their area of the world. They're also surrounded by many like minded nations that simply hate the West.

Obama may not have any intentions of starting a war but somebody over there may very well have intentions of starting a war with America or one of our allies (such as Israel).
 

Dr4gon

Registered Member
V.I.P.
This thread was tl;dr but I read it anyway.
Im not gonna try to quote posts (too much to deal with) but I do have some reactions.

@ Sunrise.
China does have some epic issues with the UK. They recently accused the UK of looting China and they want all the ancient artifacts back from the British museums. They also have issues with the US over Tiananmen Square, the South China sea, unpaid loans, copyrights, human rights demands, and Taiwan.
Xi Jinping was called the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Tse-Tung in the western media and he has had lots of very friendly talks with Russia and Japan. And dont forget all the China-Russia military exercises that didnt include the UK or the US.
Imo, China would side with Russia in a world war.

@ Highlander.
The Tatar expulsion after WW1 was the USSR playing Ivan IV and the oprichnina. They forgot that Crimea wasnt Novgorod and that the Tatars werent really German Boyars. Anyway the Germans were allowed to move back into Novgorod and the Tatars were allowed to move back into Crimea so its all ancient history now. Btw didnt the Americans do something similar with Manifest Destiny and the Indian reservations? Now native Americans are just a minority in their own native country.

For the first time ever, the Crimean Tatar language is one of the 3 official languages of Crimea and the Tatars have been offered seats in the Crimean government. Also there hasnt been any Tatar casualties in the conflict.
Turkey is over-reacting and closing the Bosphorus Strait could start a war with Russia. Well maybe thats what NATO wants. They couldnt take Crimea so now they wanna stop the Russian Fleet. Dont forget the UK and France couldnt take Crimea from Russia even after the Battle of Sevastopol and this time the Russians arent wasted on vodka.

@ Sim.
Awesome! You should be a journalist. You are way objective.
But there are a few topics I dont totally agree with.
Russia does have free opposition media. Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Komsomolskaya Pravda, and Trud are some of those opposition newspapers. Also Novaya Gazeta is well known for its investigative journalism. The media is not black & white in Russia and even Argumenty i Facty has published leftist articles (its kinda in the middle).
The main State owned and operated newspaper is Rossiyskaya Gazeta. I read that and Argumenty i Facty a lot.

Also the Baltic States are kinda left over from the time of the Boyars so not that huge an issue for Russia and I dont get why anyone would want them back. But Ukraine was part of Kievan Rus with lots of battles with Poland-Lithuania, Austria, Germany, Bolsheviks, and Mensheviks so that makes it uber special. Ukrainians have always been seriously anti-Russian so the battles havent stopped and they probably never will till Ukraine splits again.
I think the only interest Russia or President Putin has in Ukraine is blocking aggressive NATO military moves. He did that recently when he stopped the military base from being installed in Poland.

You also discussed Chinese economic interests. If China joined the Eurasian Union then that Union could easily dwarf the EU. Dont forget China loans a lot of money to the US butn now the Chinese economy is starting to sink so it may want other options.
Maybe thats why China has been working very closely with Russia and Japan.

Another thing to remember is that the USSR had a very closed economy and thrived. President Putin has done a lot recently to insulate the economy against the Euro and the American dollar. So now that the economy is insulated Russia could probably survive even another Cold War.
Btw I wonder how well the US could survive without International trade.

I think your 1st scenario is the most likely one. There is too much anti-Russian attitudes in the west and the EU would never stop trading with Russia.

@ the OP.
I would make some changes in those lists. Theres a lot of Russian sympathy in the German parliament and pro-Russian speeches get a lot of applause. Germany might take either side but I wont rule out siding with Russia.
And no way I think Brazil would side with the Allies. They are one of the most anti-US countries in South America.
But I do think western Ukraine, Poland, and Lithuania would side with the Allies. But not eastern Ukraine.
Also I think Saudi Arabia and Qatar would side with the Allies. They work together too much in military operations and they hate on Syria.
And I think Belarus and Kazakhstan would definitely side with the Axis. Egypt would too because Russia offered aid and cooperation when Obama abandoned it. And because Russia didnt side with the Muslim Brotherhood.

Anyway I wouldnt call Crimea the spark for a world war but I admit that Donetsk, Kharkov, and Odessa could be if Russia invades south and east Ukraine.
But I still dont really think its Ukraine that could start it. It would mostly just be Russia being surrounded by NATO and having to respond in a military way. It will have to respond to the NATO anti-Russia agenda someday. Trapped animals are dangerous and that includes Bears.
 
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