Two envelopes, two options

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by Mirage, Nov 19, 2008.

?

Which envelope did you go with?

  1. Keep the one you are holding

    76.0%
  2. Take the one on the table instead

    24.0%
  1. Mirage

    Mirage Administrator Staff Member V.I.P.

    There are two envelopes on a table.

    You are given one.

    Fact: One envelope has $100,000 in it and the other has $50,000. You do not know which one you are holding.

    For the sake of having some fun with this thread I'll create a spoiler.

    [highlight]Click the spoiler ONLY IF you want to take the other envelope instead.[/highlight] Or, don't click it. Vote in the poll before you do anything though, and don't lie.

    You decide to take the other envelope. Unfortunately you were already holding the envelope with double the cash in it. The new envelope only has half.

    Which envelope did you go with? The one in your hands or the one on the table?

    [highlight]Please use spoiler tags accordingly.[/highlight]
     
    Last edited: Nov 19, 2008

  2. icegoat63

    icegoat63 Son of Liberty V.I.P. Lifetime

    I went with the other...

    according to the spoiler I got the 50,000 dollar one.

    My theory behind it is... As long as I get to keep either envelope, I had a 100% chance of leaving with more money than I walked in with. So with a 50/50 chance of either or... why not just keep the game interesting and trade it out.
     
    Last edited: Nov 19, 2008
  3. Stab-o-Matic5000

    Stab-o-Matic5000 Cutting Edge in Murder

    I went with the one on the table. The way I figured it, if one has $100,000 and the other has $50,000, either way I'd be getting quite a lot of money, and I wouldn't really be losing anything, since there's no way for me to walk away without money. So why not take the chance since I've literally got nothing to lose on this deal?
     
  4. AnitaKnapp

    AnitaKnapp It's not me, it's you. V.I.P. Lifetime

    I kept the one in my hand.

    I suspected there was some sly catch, so didn't go with the bigger one. Not sure if this would be considered a spoiler or not, so this is just in case.
     
    Last edited: Nov 19, 2008
  5. fragile

    fragile Registered Member

    I chose the one I was originally given. It would be better keeping the one I got and get $50,000, than trade it and get $50,000.
    I didn't have anything when I got there, but holding the envelope with the most money, and then trading it to an envelope with less money would make me feel like I originally had it and then lost it. If that made sense.
     
  6. PretzelCorps

    PretzelCorps Registered Member

    I kept the one I was given...

    ...and was rewarded accordingly.

    Is the moral of this story, "Be happy with what you've got"? Kinda like the story of the dog that sees a bigger bone in the river and drops the one he's holding, thereby losing both?
     
    Tucker likes this.
  7. ysabel

    ysabel /ˈɪzəˌbɛl/ pink 5

    I took the other.

    It's based on a complicated statistical calculation of Monty Hall that says I have a better chance when I switch. :hah: I used to believe that when left with two choices, it's 50/50 chance but apparently not. Stats aside, I think I'd rather win/lose because of something I did (in this case the act of choosing the other envelope) than because of something I didn't do.
     
  8. Tucker

    Tucker Lion Rampant

    That depends, Hybrix: do I know that the person who handed me one of the envelopes has no idea which is which?
     
  9. Mirage

    Mirage Administrator Staff Member V.I.P.

    You know what the interesting part is? Everybody thinks they either overanalyzed or didn't think into it enough but when it comes down to it I could have set up the spoiler to be the opposite envelope and then everybody's theory goes straight out the window. I still believe that no matter how you lay it out, this decision comes down to random luck. You have no greater chance of getting the better envelope no matter which one you pick and for whatever reasons.
    ------
    I flipped a coin when I made the OP. It's safe to say the person has no idea which is which.
     
    Last edited: Nov 19, 2008
    PretzelCorps likes this.
  10. Babe_Ruth

    Babe_Ruth Sultan of Swat Staff Member V.I.P.

    I kept the one that has the money inside, it doesn't matter if it's 100k or 50k, it's still free money, and it's not money that I had before. So it's a win/win situation if you ask me.
     

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