Super Tuesday Predictions

Mirage

Administrator
Staff member
V.I.P.
#1
Who here has been following the primaries? What are your expectations for Super Tuesday?

I'm not really sure but based on the recent debates it looks like it could be very close.

Democrats I think will probably shift to a higher percentage for Obama. Obama won the last debate and it looks like he could use the momentum going into Super Tuesday. Hillary could still pull it off but I think she needs to get her answers down to a T instead of the roundabout..

Republicans I think could be very close between McCain and Romney. McCain is taking a lot of heat lately after the last debate with Romney. I think combat experience is good, but just like John Kerry I don't think the purple heart argument alone should work as an all in one answer for any question.

I think it could still be pretty close on Tuesday. We might have to wait even longer to narrow the candidates down to the final two.

What do you guys think will happen on Tuesday?
 

Kazmarov

For a Free Scotland
#2
Republicans- McCain annihilates Romney. Andrew's prediction of a close Tuesday isn't happening. McCain has an 18 point national lead and huge leads in California and most big states outside of Massachusetts.

Democrats- Totally and completely inconclusive. Obama wins Illinois and Georgia, Clinton wins New York. California and many other large states are split.

Obama's larger amount of money allows him victories in Pennslyvania and other later-voting states. Obama wins nomination in a squeaker.
 
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Mirage

Administrator
Staff member
V.I.P.
#3
You do realize that Florida could have gone either way with McCain/Romney right? It's a winner take all state. If it wasn't then they would both be neck and neck when it comes to delegate numbers. California is by district. We'll see. McCain did terrible in the last debate which was replayed last night in prime time.
 

MenInTights

not a plastic bag
#4
As far as the Republican race, I think Romney lives to continue fighting. I have been following the CA polls and Romney has pulled to a very close 2nd. Heck, according the Zogby, he has a 3pt lead! If you look at polls that were started on jan 30, McCain has a huge lead, but if you look at polls that were taken after the debate settled it is a different story. If Romney is still alive after Tues, there is still TX and PA where he should do very well. The Republican race is far from over.

I think the love-feast between Clinton and Obama will continue as they move closer to being a united team. I think by Tues, they will emerge a lot closer to the Clinton-Obama ticket. Its seems that is what everybody, including Obama wants at this point.
 

Kazmarov

For a Free Scotland
#5
Using conglomerate polls, McCain leads in: Alabama, Arizona, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Tennesee.

Romney leads in Colorado and Massachusetts.
California is by district. We'll see. McCain did terrible in the last debate which was replayed last night in prime time.
In both parties California will split. Who care that Romney might get a couple more delegates? McCain leads New York by 25, he leads New Jersey by 20, Connecticut by 21. He's going to rack up delegates like mad
 

MenInTights

not a plastic bag
#8
Using conglomerate polls, McCain leads in: Alabama, Arizona, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Tennesee.

Romney leads in Colorado and Massachusetts.


In both parties California will split. Who care that Romney might get a couple more delegates? McCain leads New York by 25, he leads New Jersey by 20, Connecticut by 21. He's going to rack up delegates like mad

Lets break the Republicans down a bit:

current delegates:
McCain=93 Romney=77 Huck=40 Paul=4

Winner take all states super tues:
NY 50 for McCain
MS 58 for McCain
NJ 52 for McCain
CN 30 for McCain
UT 36 for Romney
MO 25 for Romney (guess)
DE 18 for McCain

that leaves:
McCain=301 Romney=138

As far as the remaining, here are the last 2 national polls:
Gallup 1/31 - 02/02 McCainn +19.0
Rasmussen 01/30 - 02/02 McCain +4.0

McCain by 19% or by 4%. The numbers are everywhere, but clearly Romney has MoMo at this point. Lets say the numbers break like this:
McCAin-45%-----Romney-35%----Huck-15%----Paul-5%

...and interpolate 757 delegates those numbers get:

+341 McCain = 646 total
+265 Romney = 403 total
+113 Huck = 153 total
+38 Paul = 42 total


so, IF JonyMac has about a 10 point spread across he board, it is still a very close race. These numbers are really fast and don't take into account that McCain has really high numbers in the NorthEast. However, Romney has lots of money, lots of momentum leading into Tuesday. Right now polls are moving so fast and are so unscientific that I think 10points is reasonable.


disclaimer, I could be really, really off on these numbers as I added them really fast on my computers calculator.
------
I left AZ off the winner take all list, which will bump BigMac to 699.

argghhh.. those numbers seem low like I miscalculated. But, there it is, we will know soon enough.
 
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CMK_Eagle

Registered Member
#9
Neither race will be decided tomorrow, but I do think McCain and Hillary will take significant leads. McCain seems to be winning over conservatives as the most electable candidate, and Huckabee will steal votes from evangelicals from Romney.

On the Democratic side, the size of Super Tuesday plays to Hillary's big advantage (organization), and against Obama's (making speeches, shaking hands, and kissing babies). It won't be enough to guarantee her the nomination, but it won't be a few tens of delegates.
 

redsoxocd

living on the border
#10
I think that Hilary will probably win MA and (unfortunately) Mitt Romney will also win MA. I really want McCain to win though