Pujols watch

[Babe_Ruth]

After next season Albert Pujols will be a free agent, unless he signs an extension in the next month. Pujols told his agent that the Cardinals have until the first day of Spring Training to talk about a contract, he doesn't want to talk about during the season.

Pujols stands to make the same type of money as A-Rod or even more, he might break the record for the biggest contract in Baseball history. We have two members here that live in St. Louis and they'll be crush if they lose Pujols, he's been arguably the best player in the Majors since he joined the Majors.

There's even rumors that the Cubs might sign him when and if he becomes a Free Agent, which would be huge if you're a Cubs fan, but moreso the rival St. Louis Cardinals.

Thoughts?

 

[Babe_Ruth]

Pujols wants 30 million a year for ten years, meaning he wants a 300 Million contract.

Pujols starts conversation at $300 million

That's just insane. I know he's been one of the best players if not the best in recent years, but that type of cash is just way to much for one player. Yes, he gets the numbers, he helps to put fans in the seats, but 300 Million Dollars? That's just out of this world.

Come on guys, we need to get some discussion going here. This is a hot issue right now.

 

[Doc]

He's not going to get 10/300. There's no way in hell. How in the hell can he keep up his level of production past 35? He'd be 41 or 42 when that contract ended. 8/240 would make more sense but I'm not sure that any player is worth $30 million a year. I really, really hope he gets something slightly more sensible at 8/225.

I have a feeling he'll stay with the Phillies.

 

[Babe_Ruth]

He's not going to get 10/300. There's no way in hell. How in the hell can he keep up his level of production past 35? He'd be 41 or 42 when that contract ended. 8/240 would make more sense but I'm not sure that any player is worth $30 million a year. I really, really hope he gets something slightly more sensible at 8/225.

I have a feeling he'll stay with the Phillies.

He plays for the Cardinals.

Anyway, I wouldn't put it pass the Cardinals signing him to that type of money. They might end up meeting in the middle and coming to terms with a more reasonable deal for the St. Louis but he'll probably sign the biggest contract in Baseball history. I do agree with you that this type of money is way to much, but he's taking a chance for it especially since Jayson Werth got some much by the Nationals, and Pujols is twice the player he is. Just saying.

I'm just glad that Scott Boras isn't his agent, because this could get ugly real quick.

 

[Doc]

My bad on the Phillies comment. I always mix the two up.

I'm just glad that Scott Boras isn't his agent, because this could get ugly real quick.

I agree with you, for sure. Boras would force him to hit free agency and then demand a ridiculous amount of money. The Nationals overpaid for Werth because they had to to attract anyone decent to a losing team. It's a common issue with sub-.500 teams.

 

[Wade8813]

It's a bit high, but I'm not sure it's entirely unreasonable.

I believe a Win is supposed to be worth about 4.5 million dollars to a team (maybe a little more, since that was 2008, and salaries have been going up since then). Fangraphs lists his Wins Above Replacement (WAR) as 7.4 or higher every year of his career except his sophomore year. A 10 year contract at his age is extra risky, but he's the single most consistent producer in MLB over his career right now.

If we project him at an average of 7 WAR per year, that gives us a value of 30 million a year. Obviously, at the end of his career he probably will have declined and be producing less than 7 WAR, but there's a good chance he'll produce more than 7 WAR many of those years - and the value of a win will be increasing from $4.5 mill because of inflation.

 

[CaptainObvious]

I agree with Wade, I don't think it's entirely unreasonable. 10 years might be risky, but the guy is going to produce big numbers for a long time still. What he means in terms of wins and losses is probably worth about that much.

I really hope and pray SOMEHOW he ends up signing with the Astros but being the cheap bastards that they are, I'm not holding my breath.

 

[Doc]

I've set out looking for similar players and the WAR stats to see what kind of decline we can look forward to with Pujols.
Player name | age | WAR | AB

Albert Pujols - | 28 | 9.6 | 524
Albert Pujols - | 29 | 9.2 | 568
Albert Pujols - | 30 | 7.2 | 587

Edmonds - He switched to the NL when he turned 30 and his WAR hit career highs. It was only above 5 once in his seven previous years so it's a bit unfair to compare him to Albey but I do think his later-in-life WAR is important to this conversation.

Jim Edmonds - | 30 | 6.8 | 525
Jim Edmonds - | 31 | 6.4 | 500
Jim Edmonds - | 32 | 7.2 | 476
Jim Edmonds - | 33 | 7.3 | 447
Jim Edmonds - | 34 | 8.4 | 498
Jim Edmonds - | 35 | 6.8 | 467
Jim Edmonds - | 36 | 1.6 | 350
Jim Edmonds - | 37 | 0.8 | 365

Todd Helton - | 27 | 6.8 | 587
Todd Helton - | 28 | 6.2 | 553
Todd Helton - | 29 | 7.5 | 583
Todd Helton - | 30 | 7.4 | 547
Todd Helton - | 31 | 4.4 | 509
Todd Helton - | 32 | 2.1 | 546
Todd Helton - | 33 | 5.0 | 557
Todd Helton - | 34 | 0.7 | 299
Todd Helton - | 35 | 4.2 | 544
Todd Helton - | 36 | 0.4 | 238

Fox had 10.7, 9.0, and 8.8 WAR for the three years leading up to him being 27
Jimmie Fox - | 27 | 8.0 | 649
Jimmie Fox - | 28 | 5.5 | 693
Jimmie Fox - | 29 | 3.9 | 673
Jimmie Fox - | 30 | 7.5 | 685
Jimmie Fox - | 31 | 7.1 | 563
Jimmie Fox - | 32 | 4.6 | 618
Jimmie Fox - | 33 | 4.0 | 582
Jimmie Fox - | 34 | 1.0 | 347

Frank Robinson - | 27 | 4.9 | 580
Frank Robinson - | 28 | 7.6 | 662
Frank Robinson - | 29 | 4.5 | 674
Frank Robinson - | 30 | 8.3 | 680
Frank Robinson - | 31 | 6.0 | 563
Frank Robinson - | 32 | 4.1 | 508
Frank Robinson - | 33 | 7.4 | 643
Frank Robinson - | 34 | 4.9 | 553
Frank Robinson - | 35 | 3.7 | 545

I was looking through players to include and saw Lou Gherig. He had a steady WAR averaging over 9 until he turned 35 but there's no guarantee that his sharp decline when he was 35 and 36 wasn't due to ALS.

Mickey Mantle - | 25 | 12.5 | 474
Mickey Mantle - | 26 | 9.8 | 519
Mickey Mantle - | 27 | 6.1 | 541
Mickey Mantle - | 28 | 6.7 | 527
Mickey Mantle - | 29 | 11.9| 514
Mickey Mantle - | 30 | 7.1 | 377
Mickey Mantle - | 31 | 3.3 | 172
Mickey Mantle - | 32 | 5.7 | 465
Mickey Mantle - | 33 | 2.0 | 361
Mickey Mantle - | 34 | 3.7 | 333
Mickey Mantle - | 35 | 4.1 | 440
Mickey Mantle - | 36 | 3.6 | 547

Injuries took at toll on Frank Thomas. His WAR wasn't very good for the rest of his career (he retired at 40).

Frank Thomas - | 27 | 5.3 | 493
Frank Thomas - | 28 | 5.5 | 527
Frank Thomas - | 29 | 7.2 | 530
Frank Thomas - | 30 | 3.5 | 585
Frank Thomas - | 31 | 1.9 | 486
Frank Thomas - | 32 | 6.6 | 582
Frank Thomas - | 33 | 0 | 68
Frank Thomas - | 34 | 2.2 | 523
Frank Thomas - | 35 | 4.1 | 546
Frank Thomas - | 36 | 2.9 | 240

Feel free to add more or request more players but it seems to me like he isn't worth $30 million for the rest of his career. The odds are stacked against him historically.

 

[Wade8813]

Steve - that's a good idea, but the problem is that Pujols is pretty unique as far as production consistency.

Out of the guys you listed, a lot were plagued by injuries (and alcohol in Mantle's case).

Ripken was super consistent as far as playing time, but for some reason his production dropped off the map when he turned 31.

Hank Aaron is a pretty good comparison IMO. Although somehow Pujols may be even more consistent than Hammerin' Hank, which is pretty crazy. I wouldn't be too surprised if he surpasses Aaron's career HR mark.

If Gehrig hadn't had ALS, that probably would have been the best comparison.

 

[Doc]

Steve - that's a good idea, but the problem is that Pujols is pretty unique as far as production consistency.

I actually learned that as I was trying to find someone that matched up to him well. Statistically Pujols is a monster and I don't see how he won't be a first ballot hall of famer.