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Obama sees unemployment through rose colored glasses

SmilinSilhouette

Registered Member
@ Cons: I'm not trying to blame Obama for everything and I should qualify this with he could not do the things that he has without congress. Also, the basis for much of the current situation goes back to the community reinvestment act, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac. That being said, his anti-business and class warfare rhetoric, policies implemented and suggested, outrageous spending, increased requirements on employers (like mandated employer provided healthcare), and promise of increased taxes has been a major chilling influence on small business. I know this as I am in sales and small business is my market. Small business owners are already dealing with a difficult situation as things have slowed considerably. Compounding that is the uncertainty of what the government has planned for them. As you may know, many small businesses are sole proprietors and would be in the tax bracket of individuals making over 200k per year. These people have been demonized by the administration as part of the evil rich (which they are not). Many of these people work 60, 70, maybe 80 hrs a week. These people are struggling now and the prospect of higher taxes, increased regulation, and being the target of government demonization is freezing progress. Business hates uncertainty.
 

MenInTights

not a plastic bag
This is an important graph to add to the discussion
:

The real unemployment number (U-6) is much higher than the 10% reported. People that say SS is just using this to attack Obama haven't been personally affected in he same way that he and I have. What Obama has done over the past 2 years is bring in lots of uncertainty into the market. How do I deal with ObamaCare? Are the Bush tax cuts going to expire? Where will the US Dollar be in a year? Is there going to be a VAT tax? Energy tax? Higher corporate tax? Traditionally America has been the best place to invest because of our safe borders and stable economy. That's not true anymore.

I think things will start to finally turn in January 2011. We are guaranteed that Washington DC will be in shut down mode for all of 2011 and 2012 when the Republicans take the Congress. Be it far from perfect, businesses will have some sense of stability with a government incapable of doing anything.
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And even the U-6 numbers are likely cooked. It's probably much higher than what the Feds say:
The Real Unemployment Rate: Is It 9.5%, 16.5%, 22%, or Higher? - DailyFinance
However, Mayur's polls continued to find much worse figures. The June poll turned up 27.8% of households with at least one member who's unemployed and looking for a job, while the latest poll conducted in the second week of July showed 28.6% in that situation. That translates to an unemployment rate of over 22%, says Mayur, who has started questioning the accuracy of the Labor Department's jobless numbers.

See full article from DailyFinance: The Real Unemployment Rate: Is It 9.5%, 16.5%, 22%, or Higher? - DailyFinance
 
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Gavik

Registered Member
People that say SS is just using this to attack Obama haven't been personally affected in he same way that he and I have.
And you know that for a fact?

What Obama has done over the past 2 years is bring in lots of uncertainty into the market. How do I deal with ObamaCare? Are the Bush tax cuts going to expire? Where will the US Dollar be in a year? Is there going to be a VAT tax? Energy tax? Higher corporate tax? Traditionally America has been the best place to invest because of our safe borders and stable economy. That's not true anymore.
You do realize that Obama won because the economy tanked during the campaign, as in, before he was in office. The American economy was turning to shit since 2000.
 

MenInTights

not a plastic bag
And you know that for a fact?
no.

You do realize that Obama won because the economy tanked during the campaign, as in, before he was in office. The American economy was turning to shit since 2000.
And he had almost 2 years, a rubber stamp and a blank checkbook to fix it. Reagan did it in 1-1/2 years with a thin GOP lead in the Senate and a House controlled by Tip Oneil.
 

Merc

Problematic Shitlord
V.I.P.
And he had almost 2 years, a rubber stamp and a blank checkbook to fix it. Reagan did it in 1-1/2 years with a thin GOP lead in the Senate and a House controlled by Tip Oneil.
You're also comparing the 80's and 00's which is just silly when it comes to talking about the economy, an ever-changing beast. That's like someone saying "Why can't I buy a loaf of bread, eggs and milk with a dollar any more? My country used to be able to do that for me." Regan wasn't facing massive amounts of outsourcing, consumer credit debt, and assorted energy crisis's.
 

CaptainObvious

Son of Liberty
V.I.P.
I'm going to try and do my best to not be rude, but only a truly ignorant slouch would blame the entire economy on Obama. The economy is massive and encompasses all of us. The President is like a cowboy with one rope trying to herd stampeding bulls so blaming on him is pretty silly. Next to that red "fire the missiles" phone on his desk, contrary to popular belief, there is not a knob for controlling the temperature of the economy. American consumers did a good job of fucking themselves over, too. As someone working in debt collection, I can tell you that we've never seen a spike in our business like now and that's because Americans are retards when it comes to handling their money. It's not just the president here, it's all sorts of things.
I don't think anyone is blaming the economy on Obama, I think the points are 1) his policies are making things worse; and 2) he's delusional if he thinks he is making things better.
 

SmilinSilhouette

Registered Member
Thanks CO for getting us back on topic! To further point 2 I do seriously wonder if he is delusional, or (as Cons suggested) it is just his PR spin, or if it is intentional misdirection from his real agenda?
 

Merc

Problematic Shitlord
V.I.P.
The only thing that bugs me is that we can find graphs for anything, such as this popular one which shows Obama actually IS saving the economy in terms of jobs lost. I mean, this is coming from the office of labor statistics itself,

 

SmilinSilhouette

Registered Member
The only thing that bugs me is that we can find graphs for anything, such as this popular one which shows Obama actually IS saving the economy in terms of jobs lost. I mean, this is coming from the office of labor statistics itself,

Did you notice this graph ends Jan '10? I would be interested in seeing something current, not almost 9 months old.
 

Sim

Registered Member
In a free market economy, there are always cycles of ups and downs, and any government has only limited influence on the economic situation.

People complain Obama made things worse, or at least didn't improve things, mostly because of his increase of spending (aka "stimulus").

But is a stimulus really a bad thing? Many economists believe it's the best thing to do in a recession (as long as debts are reduced again, once things are better again). Anti-cyclic economic policy is a basic pillar of the Keynesianist school of economy, and has been heavily used in the first few decades after WW2, with mixed results.

It's consensus in Germany that Chancellor Brüning's major failure in 1930/31 was a refusal to start a stimulus, thus the recession got much worse than it would have been with a stimulus, which was one major factor for the Nazis gaining popularity. Brüning refused to make debts to stimulate the economy, but instead cut spending, thus making the recession and unemployment situation worse.

The 2008/09 crisis was countered in Germany too with a stimulus. That stimulus was not as big as the one in the US, but apparently has yielded the desired effect: The German economy is doing well, as if the crisis has never happend. There is a growth of about 2%, which is even higher than before the crisis, and unemployment is lower that it had been in the past 20 years (slightly more than 3 million unemployed -- only 5 years ago, it were still more than 5 million!). The government is now cutting spending in order to pay for it.

Certainly, these economic numbers in the US and Germany are not monocausally connected to stimulus and government action, but many factors play a role here.

Yet I don't think it's absurd to assume that a stimulus has no good effect, or even makes things worse -- well possible that the economy and unemployment would be much, much worse in the US without the stimulus.

You should keep in mind that in late 2008, we were still afraid this isn't just another moderate recession, but that the very existence of the global financial market is at stake, and this may very well become a depression as bad or even worse than in 1929/30. The only thing that saved us from total collapse (of first banks, then the real economy) was the quick reaction by governments to save banks -- to keep the first domino piece from falling, before it could trigger a fatal chain reaction.

Obama's problem is that we don't know for sure what would have happened without his stimulus and bank saving programs -- maybe it would be much worse today without that. Maybe not 10% unemployment, but 20%. Maybe a much deeper negative growth. Or maybe, we'd face similar numbers, just much less debt. Or it would be better. I don't know.

I'm no expert, so I can't say for sure (although, considering the various extremely different conclusions different economists advance, I'm not sure being an expert would be of any help).

I just say bad numbers are no indication that Obama does the wrong thing. The numbers are bad. But the question is not whether they are worse than before the crisis took place, but the question is how these bad numbers compare to the numbers we'd face if Obama had not done all the things he did. And that, we cannot know. We cannot look into a parallel universe. So we cannot know for sure if Obama is doing the right thing, if he is doing the wrong thing, too few, or the best he could possibly do.
 
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