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Midterm predictions

How will it look after midterms?

  • Republicans control house, Democrats retain Senate with a slimmer majority.

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Democrats retain house, lose Senate.

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    2

Babe_Ruth

Sultan of Swat
Staff member
V.I.P.
I got this from another forum, I thought it could garner some great discussions.

We all have heard about the enthusiasm gap for Republicans, but Democrats are trying to fight back as much as they can. Your guess on the political landscape after November.
 

generalblue

Where is my Queen?
I predict that Democrats will still be the majority leader. I hope it would be republicans but I don't really see that happening according to the polls.
 

MenInTights

not a plastic bag
I think the enthusiasm gap has been vastly underestimated. Here's Bill Clinton stumping in Michigan:
Clinton: Bernero is best choice to lead Michigan | freep.com | Detroit Free Press

While the crowd hoisted signs that stated “Virg Surge,” the turnout at the rally was anemic. More than 500 people came to the rally, but the gym at Renaissance High School was only about one-third full, even though Clinton used to command full houses wherever he went, especially in Detroit.
You see the big guns on the Republican side such as Palin, stumping to packed crowds of 1000s. There just seems to be damn near zero excitement on the left to vote while the right can't wait to get out there. I see Republicans taking both houses.
 
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MenInTights

not a plastic bag
I was looking at the polls today and I honestly think the Senate is going to fall 51-49 in favor of the Republicans. There are really only 7 races that are toss-ups: CA, CO, IL, NV, PA, WA and WV.
4 of those 7 are Democrat incumbents and in all cases, the Democrats are polling under 50%. They may be leading in a few polls, but since they are currently under the 50% mark, they are done.
The other 3 seats have no incumbent as the current Senators lost primaries, died or moved on to be President: IL, PA and WV. Of those 3, WV is the only one likely to go to Democrats.

I don't understand the candidates in each state; what there positions are, how well they are liked, etc. But from just looking at the numbers 51-49 seems very possible.
 

MenInTights

not a plastic bag
For some reason I'm the only one making predictions. That's ok, I find it entertaining. For the House, I say Republicans gain 68 seats. No particular reason, I just know it will be big and 68 is about as big as they come.
 
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