Draft Busts

Swiftstrike

Registered Member
#1
After mentioning that 50% of the players in the first round of the draft turn into busts or mediocre players I began thinking...is that really true? And wanted to look at the actual numbers.

So I decided to look at draft lists.

I selected a draft year 2004. I figured 4 NFL seasons would be enough for a player to be considered a "bust or mediocre player" or a superstar.

I was going to pick some other years but this probably has the most recent players people would would remember.


  • 1

Success - Despite averages statistics he won a superbowl.

  • QB

  • Mississippi



Bust/Mediocre. This guy was suppose to be the next Orlando Pace.

  • T

  • Iowa


  • 3


Success - Currently one of the Top WRs in the NFL.

  • WR

  • Pittsburgh



  • 4

Mediocre - Sorry Phil IMO has been nothing special. He has had a semi-successful career because of LT and Gates.

  • QB

  • North Carolina State


  • 5

Success - He was a hardhitter and a defensive player to watch out for. Too bad his career was short-lived RIP.

  • FS

  • Miami (Fla.)


  • 6


Success - Despite injuries and some off the field issues he has had a successful career thusfar when he DOES play. He just needs to not be retarded.

  • TE

  • Miami (Fla.)



  • 7


Success - He has been solid. He had a few good seasons and one mediocre one. I have no idea why the lions axed him.

  • WR

  • Texas


  • 8

Success - Although his production has dropped off a bit...could turn into a mediocre player

  • CB

  • Virginia Tech



  • 9


Bust - He has been relatively unsuccessful and has been given countless opportunities with WR personnel changes.

  • WR

  • Washington



  • 10


Success - Production has tail-ended recently a little bit but overall a good player

  • CB

  • South Carolina



  • 11


Success - Despite relatively mediocre statistics he wins games

  • QB


  • Miami (Ohio)



  • 12


Success - Solid tackles got injured one season and was traded.

  • MLB

  • Miami (Fla.)


  • 13


Success - He has no QB really but he has put up pretty solid numbers year in and out.

  • WR

  • Wisconsin


  • 14

Bust/Mediocre - This guy really hasnt done anything except stay on the team.

  • DT

  • Oklahoma



  • 15


Bust - Awesome rookie season. Followed by several shitty seasons.

  • WR

  • Louisiana State



  • 16


Success- No stats on O-Linemen and I dont really recognize the name. But I will give him the benfit of the doubt staying on the same team and starting

  • T

  • Arkansas


  • 17


Mediocre - Nothing really special statistically. But as an OLB in a denver defense scheme can you expect success?

  • OLB

  • Miami (Fla.)


  • 18


Success - Probably the best D-Lineman in this draft...now the steroid shit is out though...

  • DE

  • Ohio State


  • 19


Success- No stats on O-Linemen and I dont really recognize the name. But I will give him the benfit of the doubt staying on the same team and starting

  • T

  • Miami (Fla.)


  • 20


Mediocre/Bust - No special statistics and a few terrible seasons followed by some average ones. The next Dwight Freeney? Right...Mel Kiper.


  • USC
Minnesota Vikings

  • 21


Success - Not a lot of sacks but what do you expect from a NT

  • NT

  • Miami (Fla.)


  • 22


Bust - Yep not much to say here but he started and sucked it up.

  • QB


  • Tulane



  • 23


Bust - He isnt even on the team anymore...or on any team...

  • DT

  • Texas


  • 24

Success - He needs to find a new team lol.

  • RB

  • Oregon State



  • 25


Bust - Few tackles few games started has been on 3 different teams already.

  • CB

  • Arkansas



  • 26


Bust - Although the situation in Cinci never was good to him he has been injured and given opportunities to start...never blossumed.

  • RB

  • Michigan



  • 27


Bust - Again several teams and terrible statistics... hardly even started.

  • OLB

  • Western Michigan



  • 28


Success - His success surprised me actually but yeah he has been awesome.

  • CB

  • Ohio State




  • 29

Mediocre - Yep just average statistics. No 1000 yard seasons.

  • WR

  • Ohio State




  • 30


Bust - Yep but he was screwed when he got drafted by Detroit.

  • RB


  • Virginia Tech


  • 31


Bust - Seriously who the fuck is this guy? He just got cut from a CFL team...

  • WR

  • Oklahoma State


  • 32


Success - Pretty good stats for a TE.

  • TE

  • Georgia


 

Swiftstrike

Registered Member
#2
According to my analysis that is 17/32 successes. And I gave a few players benefit of the doubt because they were O-Linemen I had never heard of.

17/32 = 53%.

Just as predicted.
 

Doc

Trust me, I'm The Doctor.
V.I.P.
#4
I think you should do a whole series of these, Swift. You obviously have the football knowledge.

The only real way to judge an O-lineman is to compare matchups/sacks allowed.
 

Swiftstrike

Registered Member
#5
I did have fun doing this. It was pretty time consuming though.

However we could then look at talent by draft class.

I use to do a lot of draft analysis before the NFL draft and be in a betting pools for the top 25 picks in the draft.

Last year I didnt pay as close attention but from 2000 - 2006 I followed up on nearly every possible 1st round pick.

The drafts have gotten more unpredictable with all the trading now.
 

Babe_Ruth

Sultan of Swat
Staff member
V.I.P.
#6
Nice work Swift. I really enjoyed reading those, and its fun to see who actually was a bust or not.

But I don't think you can make a fair judgement on Rivers yet. He's still young and he still has the potential to become a better quarterback in this league. Some players take longer to develop then others, especially the Quarterback position.
 

Vegito728

Registered Member
#7
Pretty interesting to know exactly who was a bust and who wasn't.

You should definitely do this again.

Ace work Swift.
 
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#9
I got another one: Adam "Pacman" Jones

I say medicore to bust, not just because he attracts more trouble than a prostitute but because statwise he just isn't in line with other CBs. Only 4 interceptions in his entire career and hasn't even had a full season.
 

Ryuk

Registered Member
#10
Hmmmmmmmmmmmm, interesting. A few of us were reviewing the projected top seniors list they were showing on the NFL network last night, also for whatever reason we got to talking about Joey Harrington and how his NFL career has been a far cry from his college days.