My vote goes to between Brandon Webb of the Diamondbacks or Tom Glavine of the Mets, but I would give it to Glavine just because on how good of a season he's having. I don't think Carpenter deserves it this year.
Zambrano should win, but it'll be Glavine if we could recuperate or Carpenter simply because they're on winning teams. The Cy Young shouldn't include a team's record as part of the pitcher's performance, but unfortunately it does have an affect.
I would have to disagree on you, a lot of years pitchers who where on a bad team, won the Cy Young just look at Roy Hallada in 2003, the Jays never made it to the Playoffs, and he still won, I think if you're dominant then you'll win the Cy Young for yourself.