Another completely groundless theory on Israel's war strategy


Sultan of Swat
Staff member
Hypothesis: Israel is resigned to fighting everyone around them for as long as they exist, so now they're trying to shape the kind of fighting they'll have to do.

Argument: I know this seems opposite to what most people think, but in my mind, Israel's PR failures are at least partly intentional. They already knew they would lose the PR war no matter how well they actually did or how much they tried to avoid civilian casualties, so they didn't really try. Instead, they're doing everything they can to push Lebanon toward supporting Hezbollah so that it (Hezbollah) will be able to get control of the government. Once this is done, it will be brought out into the open and make Hezbollah officially accountable for its actions.

The same thing has happened with Hamas. Now that Hamas is in control of Palestine, it and the people who elected it into power are accountable for its actions. It's not a group of numerous, uncontrollable guerillas, it represents the people and the state. They can't hide behind the excuse of, "We're sorry, there's nothing we can do about it but we're trying out best."

Right now, Israel looks like a bully targeting innocent civilians, and in a way they are. But by pushing the people toward extremism, they're making their military efforts less asymmetrical, and making them wars Israel can win once again. In the past when Arab nations massed armies against them, Israel (with American weapons, yes) was extremely successful, much like America was extremely successful in destroying Iraqi armed forces during the initial invasion. Now that the American military is restrained and having to fight asymmetrically, it's much more difficult to "accomplish missions" if not impossible.

Conclusion: Israel is screwing up the short term for the sake of the long term, fighting for ten or fifty years from now, because it wants to be around that long.

As far as conspiracy theories go, it has the usual amount of evidence (read: none), but at least the reasoning isn't far-fetched, right?


For a Free Scotland
If Israel is waging wars against countries with terrorist-held governments, the western world will at least tolerate it. I think it's just a method of removing threats without alienating the international community.

I'm not sure about the theory, but it makes sense. Israel HAS driven nearby countries to extremism, that is true, and the odds are fifty-fifty that it's trying to.


Well wouldn't it be better if Israel tried the oposite and try to ally itself with its neighboring countries. Sure that is mroe difficult, but it will be more better in the end.

But that is an interesting strategy.


First of all let me tell you that I am very close from these events because I live in the Middle east.
Hezbollah, is a national resistance, the warriors of Hezbollah defend over their land.
Israel wanted all the countries around it to be weak, so it attacks every strong point in the Middle east, and this is exactly the american policy against the region.
In this war Israel faced a great problems with Hezbollah. Everyone thought that Hezbollah will never continue for more than 3-4 days, but Hezbollah surprised us all that these men were very ready.
The tactic of Israel in this war was very brutal:
1- Obtaining the approval of International society of the war on Lebanon, and Israel did it... for example France wanted this war to intervene in lebanon (again), USA support this war to blind us about what is going on in Iraq, and many other countries find it a good way to press over Iran to stop its nuclear program... etc etc.
2- Israel start bombing the infrastructures of Lebanon, all of them, roads , bridges, power and hospitals.
3- Israel managed to part (isolate) Lebanon from the outer world. By what? by bombing the UN bases(so they left) and banning media, and cutting communications.
This all didn't work with Israel because they couldn't find any base belong to Hezbollah, and the number of Hezbollah missiles is increased everyday.

4- Israel started bombing the residence buildings, Israel airforce killed more than 900 civilians, about 500 of them are children. This is a Measured War Crime. the goal of this is that Olmart government wanted to create a false victory in Israel, and they tried to make the Lebanese parties against Hezbollah and its war.
But they fail again, and Hezbollah became very popular in the arabic world.

Generals all over the world consider Hezbollah a miracle in the military field. This because they believe in what they are doing.

yes I want this war to stop, but we have to do something for those who killed in this war, killed for nothing.


For a Free Scotland
Israel has fought a half a dozen wars in just over fifty years, and have slowly managed to make peace and recognition from their neighboring countries, usually using land or the threat of conquest as a tool. With Egypt, they gave them back the Sinai Peninsula taken in either the Yom Kippur War or the Six-Day War (My internet sucks, so I don't really have the ability to research it). Jordan recognized Israel after Israel took the West Bank that Jordan originally annexed in the 1949 war, and eventually they may make peace with Syria by giving them the Golan Heights back.

As long as they can wage justified war, they can acquire objects to be used in negotiation. Once all their adjacent countries have made peace with them, than Israel can focus on Iran. So while the theory may not be true, it is a means of achieving what Israel wants.


Ok, eventhough Egypt did make peace with Israel after that war, most Egyptians hate Israel from invading in the first place, and they still do. I know this because I go to Egypt a lot. So I do not know what you mean by recognition.


For a Free Scotland
Egypt recognizes Israel as a sovereign state, in opposition of, to name a few, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Iran. It's a political thing that is vital to the legitimacy of a state. Somailand, Sealand, Turkish Cyprus, and Chechnya are a few states that don't have UN membership or other things due to their lack of international recognition.


ZAK said:
Generals all over the world consider Hezbollah a miracle in the military field. This because they believe in what they are doing.

this reminds me of Bagdad Bob. I dont know what sources of information you have about "generals around the world" strapping bombs to teenagers and hiding behind your women and children are not well respected military tactics. they are the tactics of cowards and they are the humiliation of the Arab world. If Hezbolla and these other groups would leave Israel alone, they could all live in peace.

Cheezewiz said:
Ok, eventhough Egypt did make peace with Israel after that war, most Egyptians hate Israel from invading in the first place, and they still do. I know this because I go to Egypt a lot. So I do not know what you mean by recognition.
If Im not mistaken Egypt along with 2 other nations attacked Israel and in the process got pushed back out of the Sinai peninsula. the others also lost land that eventually was given back do to pressure from the US Administration.

Anonym0uz Bitch

Zak, Israel has had to defend itself countless times from the Arab nations, so my ass if they just attack the weak points in the Middle East. I would also like to see what generals around the world have said that complete bull shit.

Jungle Jim

Everyone who is coming down on Israel for this needs to think about something for a mintue. Israel is attack specific places as best as the can, targeting Hezboullah strong points and headquarters, and they occasionaly (hardly ever) miss the target and accidently kill civilans. That is not some terrible artocity, it is the consquences of war. Hezeboullah, on the other hand, is shooting unguided missiles into highly populated areas, purposely killing civilans becasue they cant hurt Isreals militray. Now tell me whos worse?

EDIT: Sorry, I accidently hit the enter button a few times while typing